COP31 host pushes electrification as UK weighs EV cut

COP31 opened in Antalya on Monday with a blunt scientific backdrop as well as a commercial one. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that the Earth system is accumulating heat at an accelerating rate, while in London ministers are expected to cut the 2030 electric vehicle sales target for carmakers. For plants that build cars for both markets, the two stories are in fact, a single narrative. The climate summit sets the direction, and the regulatory calendar sets the volumes.

What did the WMO report at the start of COP31?

The WMO's State of the Climate 2026 Update put average global surface temperature for January to September at about 1.47°C above the 1850 to 1900 average, with 2026 on course to be one of the four warmest years on record. The years 2023 to 2026 are the four warmest ever measured. The more telling figure for engineers is the energy imbalance, the gap between the heat the planet absorbs and the heat it sheds.

It reached its highest value since records began in 1960 in 2025, preliminary data for early 2026 point to another record, and the ocean absorbs about 90% of the surplus. A very strong El Niño, expected to be the strongest on record by December, will add heat into 2027. António Guterres, the UN secretary-general, said "We have entered a new age of climate extremes."

Why electrification leads the Antalya agenda

Turkey, which hosts the summit, has made electrification its signature. Murat Kurum, Turkey's environment minister and COP31 president, launched a 35-by-35 pledge to lift electricity's share of final energy demand from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035. The pledge is non-binding and covers petrol and diesel vehicles, gas boilers and industrial heat, including electric furnaces.

Kurum frames it as energy security as much as climate policy, arguing that "energy that you import is energy that you do not control." Greenpeace Turkey's Emel Turker Alpay has warned that the pledge does not require the extra electricity to come from clean sources.

Australia's Chris Bowen presides over the formal negotiations under an unusual shared arrangement, and the United States has sent no federal delegation for a second year. The fossil fuel roadmap that split delegates at COP30 remains a voluntary Brazilian initiative rather than a negotiated text. For manufacturers, an electrification target is an order book in waiting. Whether a voluntary pledge turns into orders is the open question.

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What the UK is weighing

The Guardian reported on 8 November that Labour ministers are expected to cut the 2030 EV target for carmakers despite protests from MPs, and the Independent has since set out how the decision is shaping up. Under the current ZEV mandate, 33% of new car sales must be zero emission this year, rising to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029, 80% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. The consultation that closed on 23 October offered 70%, 60% or 50% for 2030, or keeping 80% with longer flexibilities.

Reports say Louise Haigh, described as the de facto deputy prime minister, is likely to sign off 60% at a meeting on Wednesday, with flexibilities extended to 2034. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is understood to favour 60%, Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds 50%, and Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh and Ed Miliband 80%.

A government spokesperson said no decisions have been taken and that the 2030 phase-out of cars running solely on petrol or diesel, and the 2035 goal, remain. Prime Minister Andy Burnham travels to his first COP in that role, and the leaders' summit runs on 11 and 12 November.

Battery electric vehicles took 32% of UK registrations in October, the highest share this year, but only 26.6% across the first ten months, or 503,805 cars. The SMMT expects 27.2% for 2026 against the 33% requirement, 32% against 38% in 2027, and 37.5% against 52% in 2028. SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said "The gap between demand and mandated targets continues to widen."

The trade body also says carmakers have spent billions on discounts, low-rate finance and subsidised charging to push sales beyond underlying demand. Labour MP Catherine Fookes has said the mandate must stay, and the charging trade body ChargeUK has warned that weakening it puts £1.7bn ($2.3bn) of charging infrastructure at risk.

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Why Brussels matters more to UK plants than Westminster

SMMT data show 76.7% of cars built in the UK in September were exported, with the EU taking 57.5% of shipments and electrified models making up 70.1% of car exports. A lower domestic quota eases the cost of selling in Britain, but it does not change the rules governing most of what leaves the factory gate. Those rules are moving too.

On 4 November the European Parliament's environment committee voted 48 to 30 to cut the 2035 fleet-wide CO₂ target for new cars from 100% to 87.5%, a deeper cut than the Commission's 90% proposal. The text adds credits for EU-made low-carbon steel and super-credits for certain EU-built electric vehicles. A plenary vote is expected in December, and France and Germany favour 90% with no offsets. UK industry fears that British-built cars could miss out on the EU-built multipliers, and Autocar reports that the UK is negotiating for them to qualify. The SMMT has already warned that new EU trade barriers threaten UK automotive manufacturing investment.

AMS has tracked what weak loading does to British plants. Nissan plans to consolidate Sunderland onto one line, hand the other to Chery from 2028 and add the Kicks with £170m ($228m) of investment. JLR confirmed on 7 September that it would cut 4,000 jobs to fix an underloaded plant network. Nissan's JATCO scrapped a £48.7m ($66m) EV powertrain plan in Sunderland. The causes AMS reported were low plant utilisation and sluggish European demand, which a lower British quota does little to fix.

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Energy, steel and the cost of the climate

The climate data has a direct line to the shopfloor. Energy is now a core cost in vehicle production, which AMS explored in why energy is now central to manufacturing cost control, and the Turkish presidency's argument that imported energy is energy you do not control lands hard in a year of high fuel prices. Brussels, meanwhile, is turning low-carbon steel into a compliance currency, a subject AMS partner content has examined in what is driving automotive adoption of low-carbon steel.

What carmakers should plan for

The summit will produce pledges. Regulators will produce quotas. The plant has to produce cars for whichever is binding on the day the order arrives. The thermometer and the quota table are drifting apart, and a plant that can build battery, hybrid and combustion models on shared lines does not need to guess which one wins in any given year. That flexibility, rather than any single target, is the hedge worth paying for.